Capitalogix

Do You Think You're Smart?

I know a lot of smart people.

I also know a lot of people who think they're smarter than they are (even the smart ones ... or, perhaps, especially the smart ones). 

It's common.  So common, in fact, that there's a name for it.  The Dunning-Kruger Effect.

Have you ever met someone who's so confident about what they think that they believe they know more than an expert in a field? That's the Dunning-Kruger effect. It's defined as a cognitive bias where a lack of self-awareness prevents someone from accurately assessing their own skills. It's getting increasingly more common.

Here's a graph that shows the general path a person takes on their journey towards mastery of a subject. 

via NC Soy

It can be funny or frustrating to see (or be) the "victims" of this effect in our daily lives.

Humans seem prone to overestimating their knowledge and abilities. It's probably more a result of ignorance than stupidity. 

Even if you are familiar with the cognitive bias caused by the Dunning-Kruger Effect, you are not immune to it — because you don't know what you don't know.

Two different ways that people get it wrong, first is to think about other people and it’s not about me. The second is thinking that incompetent people are the most confident people in the room, that’s not necessarily true.

Usually, that shows up in our data, but they are usually less confident than the really competent people but not that much... - David Dunning

It should be a reminder to reflect inward, not cast aspersions outward. 

To close out, even this article on the Dunning-Kruger effect presents a simplification of its findings. First off, the above image isn't actually a part of the paper on the Dunning-Kruger Effect (though it is ironically so prevalent that people often report that it is). Furthermore, the connection between a lack of ability and the inability to engage in meta-cognitive tasks is intuitive, but it is not the only potential takeaway from the paper. It's worth a read if you have the time. 

Regardless, I think it's clear we are all victims of an amalgam of different cognitive biases. 

We judge ourselves situationally, and assume "the best" of ourselves.  Meanwhile, we often assume "the worst" of others. 

We can do better ... it starts with awareness.

Progress starts by telling the truth.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - July 13th, 2025

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Steve Jobs’s Genius Came Down to 1 Key Ingredient, Says Marc Andreessen. (Inc)
• The Hidden Rules of Business — According to Nature. (BigThink)
• From Thinking Partner to Sparring Partner: A Better Way to Use AI. (MikeKentz)
• xAl Grok 4 : Elon Musk’s Latest AI Model Demonstrated. (Geeky-Gadgets)
• Study Finds Psilocybin Extends Cellular Lifespan and Promotes Healthy Aging. (Perplexity)

 

Trading Links:

• Sign of the Times – Meta Offered $200M to Lure Apple's AI Lead. (Perplexity)
• Goldman to Require Junior Bankers to Pledge Loyalty Quarterly. (Perplexity)
• America's Allies Are Building a New Global Trade Map Without Us. (NYT)
• The Wealth Ladder – Why Money Grows Faster After a Certain Point. (LZanev)
• What Can the Labubu Toy Craze Tell Investors About Markets? a Lot, Actually. (MarketWatch)

When Worlds Collide: Timeless Wisdom & Evolutionary Technology in Trading with Matthew Piepenburg

Back in 2020, I had a Zoom meeting with Matthew Piepenburg of Signals Matter. Of course, being the height of the Pandemic, it was over Zoom. Even though it was a private discussion, there was so much value in our discussion that we decided to share parts of it here. 

While Matt's understanding of markets is based on Macro/Value investing, we use advanced AI and quantitative methods for our approach. 

As you might expect, there are a lot of differences in how we view the world, decision-making, and the current market environment. Nonetheless, we share a lot of common beliefs as well.   

Our talk explores several interesting areas and concepts. I encourage you to watch it below. 

 

Via YouTube.

To summarize a couple of the key points, markets are not the economy, and normal market dynamics have been out the window for a long time. In addition, part of why you're seeing increased volatility and noise is that there are so many interventions and artificial inputs to our market system.

While Matt and I may approach the world with very different lenses, we both believe in "timeless wisdom". 

Ask yourself, What was true yesterday, today, and will stay true tomorrow? 

That is part of the reason we focus on emerging technologies and constant innovation ... they remain relevant. 

Something we can both agree on is that if you don't know what your edge is ... you don't have one. 

 

Hope you enjoyed the video.

Let me know what other topics you'd like to hear more about. 

Onwards!

Via YouTube.

To summarize a couple of the key points, markets are not the economy, and normal market dynamics have been out the window for a long time. In addition, part of why you're seeing increased volatility and noise is that there are so many interventions and artificial inputs to our market system.

While Matt and I may approach the world with very different lenses, we both believe in "timeless wisdom". 

Ask yourself, What was true yesterday, today, and will stay true tomorrow? 

That is part of the reason we focus on emerging technologies and constant innovation ... they remain relevant. 

Something we can both agree on is that if you don't know what your edge is ... you don't have one. 

 

Hope you enjoyed the video.

Let me know what other topics you'd like to hear more about. 

Onwards!

The Benner Cycle: How Not To Predict Markets

When I first became interested in trading, I would often consult many traditional sources and old-school market wisdom.  I particularly liked the Stock Trader's Almanac. 

While there is real wisdom in some of those sources, most might as well be horoscopes or Nostradamus-level predictions.  Throw enough darts, and one of them might hit the bullseye. 

Still, it seems better than using astrology to trade. 

Want something easy to predict?  Traders love patterns ... from the simple head-and-shoulders to Fibonacci sequences and the Elliot Wave Theory.

Here's an example from Samuel Benner, an Ohio farmer, in 1875.  That year, he released a book titled "Benners Prophecies: Future Ups and Downs in Prices," and in it, he shared a now relatively famous chart called the Benner Cycle.  Some claim that it's been accurately predicting the ups and downs of the market for over 100 years.  Let's check it out. 

 

 

Here's what it does get right ... markets go up, and then they go down ... and that cycle continues.  Consequently, if you want to make money, you should buy low and sell high ... It's hard to call that a competitive advantage.

Mostly, you're looking at vague predictions with +/- 2-year error bars on a 10-year cycle. 

However, it was close to the dot-com bust and the 2008 crash, so even if you sold a little early, you'd have been reasonably happy with your decision to follow the cycle.

The truth is that we use cycle analysis in our live trading models.  However, it is a lot more rigorous and scientific than the Benner Cycle.  The trick is figuring out what to focus on—and what to ignore. 

Just as humans are good at seeing patterns where there are none ... they tend to see cycles that aren't anything but coincidences. 

This is a reminder that just because an AI chat service recommends something, it doesn't make it a good recommendation.  Those models do some things well.  Making scientific or mathematically rigorous market predictions probably isn't the area to trust ChatGPT or one of its rivals ... yet. 

We're seeing bots improve at running businesses and writing code, but off-the-shelf tools like ChatGPT are still known for generating hallucinations and overconfidence. 

Be careful out there.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - July 6th, 2025

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• AI and Drones are Taking Over July 4th Fireworks. (Quartz)
• The Next Kodak Moment is Coming. (ThierryVonArvy)
• Jonny Ive is Going to Deliver Another IPod Moment – And OpenAI Knows It. (CreativeBloq)
• Scientists Say They Can Predict How Long You'll Live From a Single MRI. (BestLife)
• 10 in 10: The Tech that Will Rewrite Humanity. The Post-Human Decade Starts Now. (BoxOfAmazing)

 

Trading Links:

• The First Big Winners in the Race to Create AI Superintelligence: The Humans Getting Multi-Million Dollar Pay Packages. (Finance)
• Why Markets Peak When Everyone’s Optimistic. (PretzelLogic)
• A New Crypto Frontier is Emerging on Wall Street, Beyond Bitcoin and Ether. But Here Are the Risks. (MarketWatch)
• How Zoom Took Over the World. (Crunchbase)
• The CEO of One of the Largest Office Maintenance Firms in America Says Employers Are Changing Their Workspaces in 4 Key Ways. (Fortune)

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• AI and Drones are Taking Over July 4th Fireworks. (Quartz)
• The Next Kodak Moment is Coming. (ThierryVonArvy)
• Jonny Ive is Going to Deliver Another IPod Moment – And OpenAI Knows It. (CreativeBloq)
• Scientists Say They Can Predict How Long You'll Live From a Single MRI. (BestLife)
• 10 in 10: The Tech that Will Rewrite Humanity. The Post-Human Decade Starts Now. (BoxOfAmazing)

 

Trading Links:

• The First Big Winners in the Race to Create AI Superintelligence: The Humans Getting Multi-Million Dollar Pay Packages. (Finance)
• Why Markets Peak When Everyone’s Optimistic. (PretzelLogic)
• A New Crypto Frontier is Emerging on Wall Street, Beyond Bitcoin and Ether. But Here Are the Risks. (MarketWatch)
• How Zoom Took Over the World. (Crunchbase)
• The CEO of One of the Largest Office Maintenance Firms in America Says Employers Are Changing Their Workspaces in 4 Key Ways. (Fortune)

Market Growth in the First Half of 2025.

According to S&P Global, the U.S. market cap rose by 4.7% in the past 6th months. This represents a modest gain compared to the average market capitalization growth of 12.2% during the same period.

Leaders in growth were South Korea, Spain, Germany, Italy, and Brazil.

 

via VisualCapitalist

We have previously discussed this, but in addition to investments in technology and artificial intelligence, global capital is also being directed toward emerging markets, where many businesses are being established.

At first glance, some may see U.S. underperformance, but it can also be read as a sign of relative maturity and stability. Another potential perspective is that U.S. companies have already experienced explosive growth in recent years, particularly in sectors such as tech and AI, suggesting the market may currently be in a phase of consolidation.

While it's always great to see explosive growth, people undervalue resilience and steady growth, especially in light of the volatile first quarter of the year. 

Time will tell! 

 

How Long You Have Left

We only have a limited time on this earth ... and a lot of it is spent on frivolous activities. 

How much time do you think the average millennial spends on their phones ... or a baby-boomer sits in front of the TV?

The answer is a lot.

Although this chart hasn't been updated recently, it still provides a helpful glimpse of the bigger picture. 

 

via Anna Vital

Nine years in front of entertainment devices - another 10.5 years spent working. You get the idea.

If you have goals you want to accomplish, places you want to go, and lifestyle aspirations to experience, this puts the idea of finding and living your passion into perspective. 

Do you have the time to waste it?

VisualCapitalist put together a chart projecting longevity based on 2020 mortality rates.

 

via visualcapitalist
 

According to this calculator, since I'm over 60, I only have about 20 years left.   I expect more!

There are some interesting statistical facts in this; for example, an average American baby boy can expect to live until 74 ... but if that boy turns 21, his life expectancy jumps to over 75. 

While these numbers appear high, there are two key considerations. First, COVID-19 heavily reduced these numbers because mortality rates increased. 

Also, remember that these numbers are based on 2020 averages, which may differ from your own (specifically considering your race, income, location, etc.). These numbers also don't take into account expected medical and technology advances, etc. 

Ultimately, I believe Purpose is one of the most significant catalysts of longevity. People often die when they retire ... not because they're done working, but because they're done striving. 

If you're not growing, you're dying!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - June 29th, 2025

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Musk Wades Back Into Politics, Slamming Trump’s Domestic Policy Bill. (NYT)
• It's Known as 'The List'—and It's a Secret File of AI Geniuses. (Wall Street Journal)
• These New AI Job Titles Show Why Your Business Still Needs Humans in the Loop. (Inc)
• The Best Relationships Aren't Transactional, They Are Non-Transactional, Positive-Sum, and Multi-Turn. (Feld)
• Canceling Federal Grants to Universities Isn't Just Punishing Institutions. It's Breaking America's 80-Year Research Model That Produced Countless Scientific Breakthroughs. (FlowingData)

 

Trading Links:

• Trump Demands Rate Cuts From Future Fed Chief as Dollar Hits Three-Year Low. (Particle)
• Coinbase Stock Hits Record High as Senate Advances Stablecoin Bill. (Particle)
• 3 Signs the Economy is in Worse Shape Than We Thought. (Insider)
• A New AI Report From Menlo Ventures Highlights Opportunities for Startups. (Inc)
• Salesforce, Which Cut 1,000 Jobs this Year, Says AI Does 50% of the Work. (SFChronicle)

What My Recent Surgery Reminded Me About Technology.

One of my recurring messages is to focus on what you want, rather than what you don’t want.

Likewise, I believe the best way to get through challenging periods is to focus on your resources or progress.

Anyway, two weeks ago, I had a minor surgery.

Let’s face it, very few people “want” to have surgery (even small ones) ... and, for those that do, it’s a sign that something else is bothering them even more.

As much as it sucked, I have a lot to be grateful for. The practical realities of time, technology, and progress made the procedure and the recovery process easier than at any point in our species’ history.

Procedures that used to mean multiple days in a hospital bed have you home in under 24 hours.  

It brought back memories of my knee surgery from 12 years ago... and reminded me of what technology makes possible.

Before my knee surgery, I wasn’t enjoying the prospect of the needles, the knock-out drugs, the cutting, or the recovery process. Frankly, I was scared.

 

 

History is littered with tales of once-rare resources that have become plentiful through innovation. The reason is pretty straightforward: scarcity is often context-dependent.

Imagine a giant orange tree packed with fruit. If you pluck all the oranges from the lower branches, you are effectively out of accessible fruit. From that limited perspective, oranges are now scarce. But once someone invents a piece of technology called a ladder, the problem is solved.

Here is a picture from inside my knee (unlike years ago, they didn’t have to slice me open to gain access for the picture or the repair): less damage, less time, less drugs, less recovery.

 

 

Bottom-Line: I walked over 2,500 steps the day after the surgery. 

Think how far diagnostics and surgery have come since then?

Whether it is 3D imaging, minimally invasive surgical instruments, or linking big data and elastic computing, technology is a resource-liberating mechanism. It can make the ‘once scarce’ the ‘now abundant’ (or ‘readily accessible’) ... and a lot less painful.

 

From ‘Doctor Klingon’ to Clarity — and What That Means for You

But where are we today – and how was surgery different?

It sounds like a joke, but the future of medicine is in your pocket.

One of the biggest differences for me was having AI available to help me feel informed throughout the process. From the beginning, where I wanted to understand the issue and potential solutions, to having AI available on my phone in the recovery room. For example, while waiting for the doctor to tell me “how things went,” I downloaded the surgical notes from the hospital portal, only to find that they were written in “doctor speak” Klingon. So I opened Perplexity in incognito mode and asked it to interpret the notes, and explain everything to me as if I had minimal medical knowledge but still wanted to understand what happened and what I should expect. The result was incredibly comforting, and I was able to use that to send updates to family and friends.

Meanwhile, try to imagine the extensive technology used by doctors and medical staff throughout the process to test, analyze, interpret, monitor, and treat.

Soon, we’ll be able to utilize real-time data for diagnostics and design treatment plans and preventive care tailored to an individual’s unique biology and lifestyle. As a result, personalized, predictive healthcare will become the norm. Likewise, the idea of tailoring treatment to your unique biology will be expected, not exceptional.

It’s also easier than ever to imagine the shift from reactive to preventive medicine. Surgery will become less frequent as AI and wearables catch problems before they require intervention. Likewise,. That means better care and better outcomes - at scale!

And it is all getting better faster than before.

Pretty cool! 

It brought back memories of my knee surgery from 12 years ago... and reminded me of what technology makes possible.

Before my knee surgery, I wasn’t enjoying the prospect of the needles, the knock-out drugs, the cutting, or the recovery process. Frankly, I was scared.

 

 

History is littered with tales of once-rare resources that have become plentiful through innovation. The reason is pretty straightforward: scarcity is often context-dependent.

Imagine a giant orange tree packed with fruit. If you pluck all the oranges from the lower branches, you are effectively out of accessible fruit. From that limited perspective, oranges are now scarce. But once someone invents a piece of technology called a ladder, the problem is solved.

Here is a picture from inside my knee (unlike years ago, they didn’t have to slice me open to gain access for the picture or the repair): less damage, less time, less drugs, less recovery.

 

 

Bottom-Line: I walked over 2,500 steps the day after the surgery. 

Think how far diagnostics and surgery have come since then?

Whether it is 3D imaging, minimally invasive surgical instruments, or linking big data and elastic computing, technology is a resource-liberating mechanism. It can make the ‘once scarce’ the ‘now abundant’ (or ‘readily accessible’) ... and a lot less painful.

 

From ‘Doctor Klingon’ to Clarity — and What That Means for You

But where are we today – and how was surgery different?

It sounds like a joke, but the future of medicine is in your pocket.

One of the biggest differences for me was having AI available to help me feel informed throughout the process. From the beginning, where I wanted to understand the issue and potential solutions, to having AI available on my phone in the recovery room. For example, while waiting for the doctor to tell me “how things went,” I downloaded the surgical notes from the hospital portal, only to find that they were written in “doctor speak” Klingon. So I opened Perplexity in incognito mode and asked it to interpret the notes, and explain everything to me as if I had minimal medical knowledge but still wanted to understand what happened and what I should expect. The result was incredibly comforting, and I was able to use that to send updates to family and friends.

Meanwhile, try to imagine the extensive technology used by doctors and medical staff throughout the process to test, analyze, interpret, monitor, and treat.

Soon, we’ll be able to utilize real-time data for diagnostics and design treatment plans and preventive care tailored to an individual’s unique biology and lifestyle. As a result, personalized, predictive healthcare will become the norm. Likewise, the idea of tailoring treatment to your unique biology will be expected, not exceptional.

It’s also easier than ever to imagine the shift from reactive to preventive medicine. Surgery will become less frequent as AI and wearables catch problems before they require intervention. Likewise,. That means better care and better outcomes - at scale!

And it is all getting better faster than before.

Pretty cool! 

Diminishing Returns in AI: The Most Common AI Mistake

At some point, more of the same stops paying off ... it is called the law of diminishing returns.

via Sketchplanations

Nature (and common sense) reminds us that equilibrium is important. For example, when you exercise too much, you get injured; when you drink too much water, you get poisoned; etc. 

This concept applies almost everywhere.

• It's why diversification is so important in portfolio construction theory. 
• Or, why you don't want to put all your eggs in one basket (concentrating your risk).
• And, my favorite, it's also why you shouldn't only eat vegetables.

A related nugget of wisdom from the extreme ... Too much of a good thing is a bad thing! 

And of course ... Be moderate in everything, including moderation.

A recent study on the effects of ChatGPT use on brain activity also supports this theme. 

via "Your Brain on ChatGPT: Accumulation of Cognitive Debt when Using an AI Assistant for Essay Writing Task" 

The study divided 54 subjects into three groups, and asked them to write several SAT essays using ChatGPT, Google, or nothing at all. They used an EEG to record the writers' brain activity. ChatGPT users showed the lowest brain engagement. Over time, ChatGPT users got lazier. 

As a result, the ChatGPT essays also ended up lacking original thought and sounding similar. 

 

The paper suggests that the use of LLMs could harm learning and retention. The group that wrote without any help showed the highest neural connectivity, and higher brain activation in creativity ideation, memory load, and semantic processing. This group was more engaged and curious, and expressed higher satisfaction with their work. 

 

The paper hasn't been peer-reviewed yet and has a small sample size. 

Ultimately, I think it's telling us something we probably could have already guessed. If you're not actually the one reading or writing something ... you're not going to absorb the information as well. Your brain isn't going to activate as well. And if you're not finding other places to train your brain, you'll get worse at critical thinking. 

 

A few weeks ago, I wrote about my research process and how AI has both bolstered and hindered certain aspects of it. I'm casting a wider net, but going less deep. 

So now, I’m exploring how to maintain a balance. I still want to leverage AI’s value, while reintroducing a layer of slowness and reflection into the process. Maybe that means manually summarizing some articles. Maybe it means pausing to journal about what I’ve read, or discussing it with someone. The goal is not to abandon the efficiency — but to ensure that efficiency doesn’t come at the cost of depth. - via "Is AI Making Your And Your Team Smarter?"

This isn't a call to avoid AI or to slow down its development. It's a call to deliberation and intentionality. Students are flaunting that they're using ChatGPT to shirk the system. Companies are releasing AI-written copy not only on their websites but also in press releases. Humans are falling in love with chatbots and leaving their spouses. 

 

Meanwhile, AI is also the underpinning of countless enhancements and increased productivity. 

 

The same thing happened with the Internet. 

 

At a certain point, overreliance becomes a crutch, not a tool. 

 

I bet AI makes unintelligent and lazy people lazier and less intelligent. 

I'm positive it can make YOU smarter and more effective if you use it in moderation and to support your unique abilities. 

Onwards! 

Nature (and common sense) reminds us that equilibrium is important. For example, when you exercise too much, you get injured; when you drink too much water, you get poisoned; etc. 

This concept applies almost everywhere.

• It's why diversification is so important in portfolio construction theory. 
• Or, why you don't want to put all your eggs in one basket (concentrating your risk).
• And, my favorite, it's also why you shouldn't only eat vegetables.

A related nugget of wisdom from the extreme ... Too much of a good thing is a bad thing! 

And of course ... Be moderate in everything, including moderation.

A recent study on the effects of ChatGPT use on brain activity also supports this theme. 

via "Your Brain on ChatGPT: Accumulation of Cognitive Debt when Using an AI Assistant for Essay Writing Task"